Newsletters

China In Touch, 13 March 2019, Issue 248

My youth was dominated by the Cold War and the war in Vietnam. The media carried the war-like language and the language of war was used by Russia, by the United States and by north and south Vietnam Governments. Uncomfortably I am again hearing war-like language in the media, but with an important difference. Speaking in Sydney last week, respected historian Niall Ferguson claimed As the strategic and technological rivalry between the two sides intensifies over issues such as Huawei and the contested South China Sea, Australia really has only one choice, which is to back the US. Conflict is inevitable.

China In Touch, 26 February 2019, Issue 247

Engage, Exclude or Enrage? The 3 E’s summarise policy approaches to China. Australia adds a dangerous fourth E to the list - Entitlement.

Exclude is an apt description of the political pressure applied to nobble competition.

Enraging China as an inevitable result of the demand that China change its industrial and economic model

Engagement with China means more open and less confrontational discussion.

 

China In Touch, 13 February 2019, Issue 246

Several weeks ago, Canada detained the CFO of Huawei at the request to the United States. Last week the United States issued a list of charges against Huawei, some dating back to 2011. Fortune magazine called the charges “Trumped up.” Investors need to be much more worried about the methods used by the United States to block Chinas technological development. The Huawei charges are both an example of this hostile action and a precursor to the type of risk that investors will face in the future. It’s a mistake to think that this impact is restricted to Chinese companies alone.

 

China In Touch, 30 January 2019, Issue 245

If lies and distortions are repeated long enough, loudly enough and frequently enough then it becomes extremely difficult to separate out the truth from the fiction. Social media offers unparalleled opportunity to amplify unsubstantiated or poorly substantiated assertions and like any complex web of lies, it’s a tedious process to unpick the deceits. This is very significant when this begins to contaminate the formulation of policy.

 

China In Touch, 16 January 2019, Issue 244

Welcome to 2019 where its increasingly clear that the America First policies pursued by Donald Trump in 2018 seem to be aimed at creating a bipolar financial world, with China at one end and the US at the other. For investors this signals more market volatility in 2019 with extreme swings. For the NT it may make attracting Chinese investment more difficult.

One consequence will be smaller financial flows between China and the US. The downgrade in Apple results is just the first precursor to this ongoing impact. Investors can expect more China related revenue shocks to US companies over the coming months of the reporting season.